Future Of Cuba
Closely related to the topic of Inter-American Relations is the current situation in Cuba. U.S. foreign policy has attempted to isolate the regime via an ineffective embargo and to micromanage the post-Fidel transition in response to domestic constituents. Rather than isolating the island-nation this has thrust it into the mainstream of US politics and made it a bone of contention in inter-American relations. The sudden illness of the Cuban leader and his transfer of power to his brother Raul have raised doubts about the staying power of the regime. A close examination of the threats and opportunities to national and sectoral interests generated by the situation is key to understanding how US policy towards the country might be reformulated. CIPR believes that this is a third area of research where some of the following questions could be explored:
- Should the US adopt a policy of engagement to promote greater political and economic opening and capitalize in the opportunities they would generate?
- Or should it persist upon the strategy of regime change through attrition?
- How likely is Cuba to follow a belated transition to democracy and the market as the one experienced by the rest of the Latin American region?
- Will it instead follow a China-style combination of open markets and closed politics?
- Is the continuation of the status quo likely?
- What are other possible scenarios?
