Democratic Erosion as a Sequence of Regime Events: A Micro-Level Conceptualization

Benjamin Garcia-Holgado
University of Delaware

This talk presents a novel micro-level conceptual framework for analyzing democratic erosion, resilience, and recovery by disaggregating regime change into discrete, time-bound “regime events” —actions by political actors that modify specific democratic components. These events are classified as autocratizing, democratizing, or status quo, and are distinguished from contextual conditions such as polarization or economic crises, which influence but do not constitute regime change. Recognizing that erosion typically proceeds incrementally over time, this framework allows us to study how sequences of small events accumulate and produce macro-regime effects. Drawing on sequence analysis and case studies from Ecuador (2007–2017) and Argentina (2003–2015), this framework shows how early autocratizing events can generate self-reinforcing dynamics, while democratizing events may foster resilience and recovery.