Central America in the Changing Global Order

Oct 31, 2025 -

CONFERENCE SPONSORED BY:
Center for Inter-American Policy and Research (CIPR), Tulane University
Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) and Latin America Studies Initiative (LASI),
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Center for the Americas, University of Oklahoma
Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council

Friday, October 31, 2025
8am – 2pm
Hopkins Bloomberg Center Room 820
555 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC

Less than four decades since the end of the Cold War, Central America again confronts a rapidly changing global order. As Great-Power competition between the United States and China heats up, the countries of Central America—like other small states in the Global South—face growing political, economic, and strategic dilemmas, which have important implications for trade, development, and security in the region. Meanwhile, the move toward a more multipolar order has recast Central America’s geostrategic relevance. Though longstanding issues like migration and organized crime remain atop international policy agendas, world powers like the United States and China increasingly see the region as an arena to counter rival influences and assert their own hegemony, whether through defense cooperation, infrastructure investments, development assistance, or trade policy.

What does today’s Great-Power competition mean for the countries of Central America? How has it reconfigured the landscape of trade and investment in the region, and how might governments and citizens productively navigate these changes? What are the implications of the shifting global order on transnational security threats in Central America, both old and new? How do these transformations challenge multilateralism and regional cooperation and might they present new, unexpected opportunities for Central America as well? Finally, what might the experiences of Central American countries tell us about how small states can and should navigate these global transformations?

This full-day conference in Washington, DC will provide an opportunity to debate these questions by bringing together public- and private-sector stakeholders, including US and Central American government officials, international organization representatives, business leaders, policy analysts, and academics. In doing so, we hope that this conference will forge productive ways forward to promote greater security, prosperity, and cooperation in Central America, and the Western Hemisphere writ large.

Conference Schedule

8:30 – 9:00am Welcome

Conference organizers
Kevin Casas-Zamora, Secretary-General, International IDEA

9:00 – 10:00am Panel 1 – US-China Rivalry: What Does It Mean for Central America?

Central America has become an increasingly important site in the broader contest for influence between global powers like the United States and China. While the United States remains the dominant partner through trade, migration ties, and security cooperation, China’s growing role as a lender, investor, and diplomatic partner is shifting dynamics within countries, while also spurring political realignments in regional and international organizations. This panel brings together experts to explore what Great-Power competition means for Central America today and how the current landscape compares to previous historical moments like the Cold War era.

Benjamin Gedan (moderator), Fellow and Adjunct Lecturer of Latin American Studies Initiative, SAIS
Margaret Myers, Managing Director, Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs, SAIS
Mateo Jarquín, Assistant Professor of History and Director of the Program in War, Diplomacy, and Society, Chapman University
José Luis Sanz, Washington DC correspondent for El Faro

10:00 – 10:15am Coffee break

10:15am – 11:15am Panel 2 – Non-State Actors and Transnational Security in Central America

Non-state criminal actors are central to the security landscape of Central America, shaping politics and everyday life. Their influence often extends beyond borders, linking local violence to global markets in drugs, arms, and human trafficking. At the same time, their entanglement with political elites, security forces, and business interests raises questions about corruption, state capture, and the role of the international financial system in abetting illicit activities, complicating US and international policy responses and challenging democratic institutions across the region. This panel brings together scholars and policy analysts to examine the role of non-state criminal actors in reshaping security and governance in Central America and beyond.

Albert “Jim” Marckwardt (moderator), Program Administrator and Faculty Co-Lead, Latin America Studies Initiative, SAIS
Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, Professor and Director of the Terrorism, Transnational Crime, and Corruption Center, George Mason University
Julia Yansura, Program Director for Environmental Crime and Illicit Finance, Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency (FACT) Coalition
Douglas Farah, President, IBI Consultants

11:15am – 12:30pm Lunch

12:30 – 1:00pm Fireside chat with Francisco Lima Mena, Former Secretary General of the Secretariat of Economic Integration in Central America (SIECA) and former Ambassador of El Salvador to the World Trade Organization

Moderated by Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, Central America lead and Director of Impact and Operations, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
For decades, trade, economic integration, and foreign direct investment have been pillars of growth and development in Central America. Today, the region is one of Latin America’s most integrated subregions. Over the past few years, intraregional trade has increased and shown remarkable resilience to external shocks. What lessons can be drawn from seven decades of integration? How can Central America’s economic legacy inform the region’s response to an unprecedented geopolitical context in which global supply chains are shifting, competition for investment is intensifying, and new technologies are reshaping industries? In this forward-looking fireside chat, Francisco Lima—former Secretary General of Central America’s Economic Integration System and former Ambassador of El Salvador to the World Trade Organization—will reflect on the achievements and challenges of regional integration and consider how Central America can leverage its integration model to strengthen competitiveness, attract new investment, and deepen its role in global trade.

1:00 – 2:00pm Panel 3 – Where Do We Go From Here? The Future of Multilateralism and Regional Cooperation in Central America

Central America faces converging crises of insecurity, migration, climate change, and weak governance—challenges that no country can tackle alone. Regional cooperation and multilateral frameworks have long promised collective solutions, yet the shifting geopolitical landscape is reshaping the foundations of cooperation, trade, and investment on which the region relied in past decades—factors that were vital to overcoming historical periods of conflict and economic crisis. This panel brings together Central American experts and policy makers to examine the prospects for greater cooperation and integration in Central America amid the changing global order.
Elayne Whyte (moderator), Professor of Practice, SAIS
Claudia Escobar, Permanent Representative of Guatemala to the OAS
Pedro Caldentey del Pozo, Professor of Economics, Expert in Central American Integration
Jaime Granados, Chief, Trade and Investment Division, Inter-American Development Bank